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BCR Revises Up Romanian GDP Growth F’cast At -7.1% In ’09, +0.6% In ’10

Banca Comerciala Romana revised up its forecast regarding Romania's economic growth, seeing now a 7.1% contraction in 2009 from previously expected 8%, according to BCR's chief economist Lucian Anghel.
BCR Revises Up Romanian GDP Growth F'cast At -7.1% In ’09, +0.6% In '10
16 dec. 2009, 14:36, English

The new forecast is based on better than expected results in the third quarter, when Romania’s GDP fell 7.1% on the year.

BCR also revised upward its forecast on 2010 GDP growth, to 0.6% from previously seen 0.2%.

Nevertheless, Anghel said that even with the new estimation on 2009 economic contraction, „pleasant surprises” might occur anyway, adding that exports would be the main factor supporting the economic growth in 2010.

BCR analysts are still reserved on the evolution of the leu, as it still strongly depends on investors’ emotional reactions.

BCR estimates the current account deficit would be at 4.6% of the GDP in 2009, at 4.8% of the GDP next year and at 5% of the GDP in 2011.

Foreign investors might become more active in 2010, and according to Anghel, they would be interested in buying large areas of land.

BCR representative estimated that 2010 and 2011 would be subject to medium and long term investments.