Romanian Forecast Commission Issues Early Spring ’08 Econ Outlook

The commission maintained its estimations on economic growth in 2008, to 6.5%, but revised upward the value of the gross domestic product, to 470 billion lei (EUR1 = RON 3.7376), according to the early spring forecast.

In the medium term fall forecast, published in November 2007, the commission anticipated an economic growth of 6.5%, but with a GDP seen to reach RON442.8 billion.

Last year, the GDP reached RON404.7 billion, after a strong last quarter sprint, spelling a 6.6% hike, while economic growth reached 6%, 1.9 percentage points short of the 7.9% level registered in 2006, according to data from the Romanian National Institute for Statistics.

In the short term forecast, the commission estimates a 5.2% climb in industrial output and a 22% increase in construction works.

Romania’s trade deficit will reach 18.4% of the GDP this year, a level similar to the one registered in 2007, according to the commission, 0.8 percentage points below the 2007 forecast.

In the November forecast, the commission saw 2008 with a trade deficit of 19.2% of the GDP.

With respect for value, the trade deficit will be higher this year, reaching EUR24.3 billion, as opposed to the EUR21.5 billion deficit seen in 2007.

In a three-year first, the 17.4% export growth will overtake the 15.6% growth registered by imports, according to the document.

The average exchange rates will reach RON3.55 per euro, up 6.3% on 2007.

The estimation adds RON0.25 to the average price for one euro estimated in the November forecast.

On January 24, 2008, the exchange rates announced by the Romanian central bank, of RON3.7695 /euro, represented a three-year peak.