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Romanian Indus Likely To Take First Steps Toward Recovery – ING

Romania’s industry is likely the first sector to recover from recession, but it might not be enough to support a growth of the gross domestic product, an ING Bank report showed Wednesday.
Romanian Indus Likely To Take First Steps Toward Recovery - ING
09 sept. 2009, 15:15, English

The country’s unadjusted industrial output fell 4.2% on the year in July, but rose 0.9% on the month, according to National Statistics Institute data.

The improvement was supported by the manufacturing industry, and more specifically by the auto and oil refining sectors, ING said in its report.

Romania’s auto industry „was most likely boosted by the car scrap schemes employed by several European countries and the fact that German scheme ended early this month is most definitely a negative,” it noted.

„However, the consequences of the halt in government subsidies could be partially mitigated by the fact that Dacia cars are considerably cheaper than many comparable cars.”

In addition, a potential weaker contribution of the auto industry to the Romanian economy might be compensated by recent economic improvement in several of the country’s foreign trade partners, ING said.

ING analysts estimate Romanian economic decline will reach 7.5% this year, followed by a 1.6% growth in 2010.

The country’s industrial output is seen falling 7.2% in 2009.