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Romania’s Prognosis Comm Revises Dn ‘09 GDP Growth To -7.7%

Romania’s National Prognosis Committee CNP revised down its forecast on the country’s economic growth for 2009 to minus 7.7%, from minus 4% it estimated in spring.
Romania’s Prognosis Comm Revises Dn ‘09 GDP Growth To -7.7%
25 sept. 2009, 11:30, English

CNP’s prognosis is still above the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, which sees Romania’s gross domestic product down 8%-8.5% in 2009.

According to the committee’s preliminary autumn prognosis, Romania’s economy will return to growth in next year’s third quarter, when the GDP is projected to rise 0.8% compared with the third quarter of 2009.

For the whole of 2010, CNP estimates a 0.5% GDP growth, compared with a 0.1% hike predicted in spring. In 2011, Romania’s GDP is seen up 2.4% on the year.

CNP estimates the peak of the recession in 2009. Thus, third quarter GDP will be down 8.5% compared with the same period of 2008, and down 1% compared with this year’s second quarter.

In the second quarter, Romania’s GDP shrank by a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in the compared with the previous quarter. In unadjusted data, GDP fell 8.7% on the year in the second quarter, according to the National Statistics institute data.

In the last three months of 2009, the economy will contract by 7% compared with the similar period a year earlier, and by 0.8% compared with the previous quarter, according to the preliminary autumn prognosis.

The first quarter-to-quarter growth is seen for 2010’s second quarter, when the GDP is seen up 1% from the January-March period, though it will still be down compared with the second quarter of 2009.