Fitch Sees Romania’s '09 GDP -7.5%, Budget Gap At 7% Of GDP

Fitch Ratings forecasts Romania’s economy will fall 7.5% this year, while the budget deficit is seen at 7% of the projected gross domestic product, more optimistic compared with both the IMF and government’s estimations.

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In September, Romania's National Prognosis Committee CNP revised down its forecast on the country's economic growth for 2009 to minus 7.7%, from minus 4% it estimated in spring.

In August, the International Monetary Fund estimated Romania's economic contraction at 8%-8.5% in 2009, double compared with March's forecast of 4.1%.

As for the budget deficit, the government's target for 2009 was set at 7.3% of the GDP, following a revision of the agreement with IMF.

Fitch estimates Romania's economic growth will be at 2% in 2010, while its budget deficit is seen at 4.5% of the GDP next year.

For 2010, CNP estimates a 0.5% GDP growth, in line with IMF forecast of 0.5%-1%.

Fitch sees Romania's economic growth at 4% in 2011.

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