Moody’s Sees Romania Inflation At 4.4% In 2009

In 2010, the ratings agency sees Romania’s inflation at 3.7%, also above the central bank’s current forecast of 2.6%.

Moody’s forecasts for 2009 an economic decline of 8.9% and a current account gap of 5.1% of the gross domestic product.

For 2010, Romania’s economy is estimated to grow by 1.2%, while the current account deficit is seen narrowing to 3.5% of the GDP, the report noted.

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Romania’s central bank has recently revised its forecast on the annual inflation rate to 4.3% in December, from 4.4% previously seen. The bank also revised down the 2010 inflation forecast to 2.6%, from an earlier prediction of 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund, which leads a EUR20 billion foreign aid package Romania has secured this spring, estimated the country’s economy will contract by 8% to 8.5% in 2009, followed by a slight growth of up to 1% in 2010.

The fund forecasts Romania’s inflation at around 4.3% this year.

In the first half of 2009, Romania’s economy shrank by 8.7% on the year.

Romania’s annual inflation was at 5.06% in July, the fifth consecutive decline of this year. The consumer price index was down 0.07 percentage points on the month in July, the first negative monthly reading since August 2008.