Romanian Economy May Enter Technical Recession After 1Q – Raiffeisen Analyst

Romania’s economic growth data in the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted, will be published by the Statistical Office of the European Communities Eurostat, Dumitru said. The data might show a 3% decrease in the last quarter compared with the third quarter.

"Technically speaking, we will probably enter recession as well, as recession is defined as the GDP decrease in two consecutive quarters (…) In the fourth quarter we have a 3% decrease, if it is seasonally adjusted, and we forecast a slight decrease in the first three months of 2009 compared with the same period a year before, which equally involves a minus compared with the last three months of 2008," Dumitru told MEDIAFAX.

Dumitru also said the investments in infrastructure are very important as Romania has a high growth potential on this segment.

According to Dumitru, Romania’s GDP will grow by 0.5% in 2009, and 1.5% in 2010, pointing also these are high-risk forecasts.

Romania’s gross domestic product grew by a lower than expected 7.1% in 2008, after an abrupt slowdown in the fourth quarter. In 2008’s last quarter, Romanian GDP rose 2.9% on the year, compared with the 9.2% growth in the third quarter.