Romanian Economy Out Of Recession In Q4 2009 - Analysts

According to analysts, seasonally adjusted data could show that the economy came of recession in the last quarter of 2009. Nevertheless, Romania would register one of the weakest annual performances in the European Union.

"The GDP is likely to shrink by 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the same quarter the year earlier. However, compared with the third quarter, the GDP grew by 0.6%," said Laurian Lungu, managing partner with Macroanalitica.

Lungu predicted Romania's economy will grow by 1.5%-2% in 2010, after having declined 7% in the last year.

Nicolae Chidesciuc, chief economist at ING Bank Romania, estimates a similar economic increase for the fourth quarter of 2009, followed by further growth in the coming months.

"I expect the figures for the last quarter of 2009 to confirm that Romania is out of recession. The yearly decline narrowed to 4.8% in the fourth quarter, fueled by the positive impact of the industry and agriculture, which means that the economy contracted by 6.6% in the whole of 2009," Chidesciuc said.

Romania's GDP shrank by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, while the annual decline was of 7.1%.

In the first nine months of 2009, Romanian GDP fell 7.4% on the year in real terms.

Romania's statistics institute INS is due to release February 12 a flash estimate on the fourth quarter GDP.

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