„Real GDP growth is expected to turn positive by the first quarter of 2010 leading to a moderate 0.5% real GDP growth rate in 2010, gradually accelerating to 2.5% in 2011,” the report said.
However, the Commission noted economic recovery will remain shallow, because of a „continued need for fiscal adjustment”, reduced capital inflows and high jobless levels.
Romania’s sharper-than-anticipated economic decline in the first half of 2009 has resulted in a significant decline in government revenue, the report said. The Commission envisages the country’s budget deficit will deteriorate to 7.8% of the GDP this year, from 5.5% in 2008.
For 2010, the Commission predicted Romania’s budget deficit will „decline only marginally” to 6.8% of the GDP.
Both predictions, however, are premised by Romania’s ability to implement a series of economic and fiscal measures aimed at slashing public spending.