Romania 3Q Revised GDP Dn 0.6% QQ, Dn 7.1% YY

The INS data are slightly revised from a 0.7% quarterly contraction estimated three weeks ago, but are in line with the 7.1% annual decline previously envisaged.

In unadjusted data, GDP fell 7.1% on the year in the third quarter to RON127.78 billion, on substantial declines in constructions, retail and industry.

The GDP quarterly fall was driven mainly by declines in constructions, which were down 5.5% compared with the second quarter, and retail sector, which fell 2.6% on the quarter.

The agriculture and industry sectors increased by 15% and 3.6% in the third quarter compared with the quarter before, INS data showed.

Final consumption was down 1.1% in the third quarter, largely due to a 1.5% decrease of final collective consumption in the public administration and a 1.4% quarterly fall of household consumption expenses.

Investments in the Romanian economy increased significantly in the third quarter, as the gross fixed capital formation rose 30.3% from the quarter before.

In the first nine months of 2009, Romanian GDP fell 7.4% on the year in real terms to RON334.23 billion.

Romania’s prognosis commission CNP estimated the GDP will reach RON497.3 billion in 2009. It expects the Romanian economy will shrink by 7.7% this year, followed by a slight growth of 0.5% in 2010.

The International Monetary Fund estimates the country’s GDP will contract by 7.5%-8% at year-end, a slight improvement from a previous decline predicted at up to 8.5%.