Global Employment Outlook Weaker For 1Q 2009 – Survey

The number of companies that see a slowdown in recruitment or even staff cuts increased slightly to 12% for the first quarter of 2009, compared to 11% planning to scrap jobs in the last quarter of 2008.

Information regarding net employment outlook is based on the difference between the percentage of employers anticipating increased hiring in the following quarter and that of employers foreseeing a decrease in hiring.

"The constant decline registered in hiring in Romania is not a surprise considering current market conditions for companies, which will be very careful in adjusting their hiring plans to the demand for the products or services they offer," said Manpower Romania general manager Camelia Stanculescu.

According to the survey, the net employment outlook in the first quarter of 2009 will be of +16%, down from the +21% outlook in the fourth quarter of this year.

Thus, 28% of companies polled said they plan to hire staff in Jan-Mar 2009, compared to 32% in Oct-Dec 2008.

According to the survey, 58% of employers don’t expect changes in recruitment plans for the following quarter, up two percentage points compared to the last quarter of 2008.

The most optimistic hiring plans are those of companies in Romania’s northwestern region and in and around capital city Bucharest, where the net employment outlook is seen at 27% and 23%, respectively.

"Nine out of ten sectors of activity report positive employment outlook for the first quarter of 2009. The exception is the electricity, gas and water works sector, where the outlook is of minus 15%, down 19 percentage points, suggesting a harsh quarter for people looking for jobs in this sector. (…) Compared to the previous quarter, hiring plans are more cautious in seven of the ten sectors analyzed," the survey noted.

Major decreases are also seen for agriculture and public administration, down 12 points to +17%, constructions, down seven points to +6%, and the processing industry, down ten points, to +14%. On the other hand, companies in finance, insurance, real estate services, commerce and transport have the most optimistic hiring outlook.

Romania ranks first among 17 countries in Europe, Middle East and Africa, followed by South Africa (+13%), Poland (+12%), Belgium ( +7%), Switzerland (+7%) and the Netherlands (+6%). The most pessimistic employment outlook was reported for Ireland (-14%), Spain (-13%) and Italy (-11%).

The survey data reveals that employers with the most active first-quarter hiring plans globally, despite generally weaker hiring patterns, are reported in Peru, India, Costa Rica, Canada, Romania, Colombia, South Africa, Australia, Poland, the United States and China. On the other hand, employers in Singapore, Ireland, Spain and Italy reported the least optimistic hiring forecasts.

Only employers in Canada, the United States and Switzerland are reporting improved Net Employment Outlooks from three months ago, while employers in 21 countries and territories are reporting the weakest hiring plans since the survey was established there by Manpower, the survey noted.

The survey included nearly 55,000 employers in 33 countries. In Romania, the survey included 750 employers.